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Al Ahli Khartoum vs Al Ahli Wad Medani — Sudani Premier League 2025

Al Ahli Khartoum
Al Ahli Khartoum
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Al Ahli Wad Medani
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1/27/2026Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Al Ahli Khartoum27%
×Draw27%
Al Ahli Wad Medani46%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.00
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.39

Al Ahli Wad Medani creates 39% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 14 away

creates per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al Ahli Wad Medani
1.64

allows per match

Al Ahli Khartoum
1.14
Al Ahli Wad Medani
0.86

finishing

Al Ahli Khartoum+0.00on par
Al Ahli Wad Medani+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Ahli Khartoum ↓

Al Ahli Wad Medani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al Ahli Khartoum or draw
54%
Al Ahli Khartoum or Al Ahli Wad Medani
73%
Draw or Al Ahli Wad Medani
73%

Winning margin

Al Ahli Khartoum wins by 2+
10%
Al Ahli Wad Medani wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Al Ahli Khartoum 1+ goals
63%
Al Ahli Khartoum 2+ goals
26%
Al Ahli Khartoum 3+ goals
8%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 1+ goals
75%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 2+ goals
40%
Al Ahli Wad Medani 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Al Ahli Khartoum (draw refunded)
37%
Al Ahli Wad Medani (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Ahli Khartoum at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.14 · 14 matches

Al Ahli Wad Medani away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Ahli Khartoum attack 1.14 + Al Ahli Wad Medani defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.00

Al Ahli Wad Medani attack 1.64 + Al Ahli Khartoum defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Al Ahli Khartoum scores more
27%
level
27%
Al Ahli Wad Medani scores more
46%

Al Ahli Wad Medani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Ahli Wad Medani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Al Ahli Khartoum 1–4 Al Ahli Wad Medani

Al Ahli Wad Medani beat Al Ahli Khartoum 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on January 27, 2026.