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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Dhamk — Pro League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Dhamk
Dhamk
3/6/2021Pro LeaguePro League · Round 22King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah57%
×Draw22%
Dhamk21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.90
Dhamk
1.06

Al-Ahli Jeddah creates 79% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.01
Dhamk
1.06

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.05
Dhamk
1.80

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Dhamk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Dhamk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
79%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Dhamk
78%
Draw or Dhamk
43%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
33%
Dhamk wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
85%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
56%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
29%
Dhamk 1+ goals
65%
Dhamk 2+ goals
29%
Dhamk 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
73%
Dhamk (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.05 · 111 matches

Dhamk away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.80 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.01 + Dhamk defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.90

Dhamk attack 1.06 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
57%
level
22%
Dhamk scores more
21%

Al-Ahli Jeddah at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Al-Ahli Jeddah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pro League: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–3 Dhamk

Dhamk beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 3-1 in Pro League on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at King Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Mecca.