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Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Hilal Saudi FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah
FT
2 – 4
HT: 2 – 1
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
8/6/2019AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · 8th FinalsKing Abdullah Sports City

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Al-Ahli Jeddah36%
×Draw24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.48
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 39 away

creates per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
2.00
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
2.05

allows per match

Al-Ahli Jeddah
1.10
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0.97

finishing

Al-Ahli Jeddah+0.00on par
Al-Hilal Saudi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Ahli Jeddah ↓

Al-Hilal Saudi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw
60%
Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
76%
Draw or Al-Hilal Saudi FC
64%

Winning margin

Al-Ahli Jeddah wins by 2+
17%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Al-Ahli Jeddah 1+ goals
77%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2+ goals
43%
Al-Ahli Jeddah 3+ goals
19%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1+ goals
79%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2+ goals
46%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Al-Ahli Jeddah (draw refunded)
47%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 31 matches

Al-Hilal Saudi FC away — creates 2.05, concedes 0.97 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 2.00 + Al-Hilal Saudi FC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 2.05 + Al-Ahli Jeddah defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Al-Ahli Jeddah scores more
36%
level
24%
Al-Hilal Saudi FC scores more
40%

Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Al-Hilal Saudi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Champions League: Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–4 Al-Hilal Saudi FC

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Ahli Jeddah 4-2 in AFC Champions League on August 6, 2019.

The match was played at King Abdullah Sports City in Jeddah.