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Akzhayik vs Jas Qyran — 1. Division 2019

Akzhayik
Akzhayik
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Jas Qyran
Jas Qyran
9/27/20231. Division1. Division · Round 25Stadion Akzhayik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Akzhayik61%
×Draw20%
Jas Qyran19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akzhayik
2.12
Jas Qyran
1.08

Akzhayik creates 96% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 14 away

creates per match

Akzhayik
1.81
Jas Qyran
1.21

allows per match

Akzhayik
0.96
Jas Qyran
2.43

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par
Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Jas Qyran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw
81%
Akzhayik or Jas Qyran
80%
Draw or Jas Qyran
39%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+
38%
Jas Qyran wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals
88%
Akzhayik 2+ goals
62%
Akzhayik 3+ goals
35%
Jas Qyran 1+ goals
66%
Jas Qyran 2+ goals
29%
Jas Qyran 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)
77%
Jas Qyran (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.96 · 47 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.43 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 1.81 + Jas Qyran defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.12

Jas Qyran attack 1.21 + Akzhayik defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Akzhayik scores more
61%
level
20%
Jas Qyran scores more
19%

Akzhayik at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akzhayik vs Jas Qyran

Akzhayik beat Jas Qyran 2-0 in 1. Division on September 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akzhayik in Ural'sk.