Akzhayik 5–2 Jas Qyran: Result & Stats | Cup

Akzhayik

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Jas Qyran

E. Kobzar 79'

A. Smailov 75', 9', 3'

Z. Badoyan 61'

A. Slyamkhan 70'

A. Alikhan 63'

3/20/2023

Cup · Qualifying Round - 2Futbol Ortalığı BÏİK Main Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Akzhayik59%

×Draw19%

Jas Qyran22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkzhayikExpected goals in this matchJas Qyran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.43

Akzhayik

2.40

Jas Qyran

1.43

Akzhayik creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 4 away

2.54

creates per match

2.00

0.85

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Akzhayik

2.54

Jas Qyran

2.00

allows per match

Akzhayik

0.85

Jas Qyran

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akzhayik+0.00on par

Jas Qyran+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akzhayik ↓

Jas Qyran →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–18%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Akzhayik or draw

78%

Akzhayik or Jas Qyran

81%

Draw or Jas Qyran

41%

Winning margin

Akzhayik wins by 2+

37%

Jas Qyran wins by 2+

Team goals

Akzhayik 1+ goals

91%

Akzhayik 2+ goals

69%

Akzhayik 3+ goals

42%

Jas Qyran 1+ goals

76%

Jas Qyran 2+ goals

42%

Jas Qyran 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Akzhayik (draw refunded)

73%

Jas Qyran (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Akzhayik at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Jas Qyran away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Akzhayik attack 2.54 + Jas Qyran defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.40

Jas Qyran attack 2.00 + Akzhayik defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Akzhayik scores more

59%

level

19%

Jas Qyran scores more

22%

Akzhayik at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Akzhayik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

A. Smailov

A. Zhaisanbek

A. Smailov

44'

K. Ilyasov← K. Ilyasov

44'

A. Slyamkhan← A. Slyamkhan

61'

Z. Badoyan

63'

A. Alikhan

70'

A. Slyamkhan

75'

A. Smailov

79'

E. Kobzar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff