Aktobe 1–0 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats | Cup

Aktobe

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

8/14/2022

Cup · Group Stage - 5Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Aktobe36%

×Draw26%

FK Tobol Kostanay38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AktobeExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.36

Aktobe

1.32

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 22 away

1.20

creates per match

1.82

0.90

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Aktobe

1.20

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.82

allows per match

Aktobe

0.90

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aktobe+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aktobe or draw

62%

Aktobe or FK Tobol Kostanay

74%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

64%

Winning margin

Aktobe wins by 2+

16%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Aktobe 1+ goals

73%

Aktobe 2+ goals

38%

Aktobe 3+ goals

15%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

74%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

39%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Aktobe (draw refunded)

49%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe attack 1.20 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.82 + Aktobe defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aktobe scores more

36%

level

26%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

38%

FK Tobol Kostanay at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FK Tobol Kostanay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff