Aktobe 2–1 FK Tobol Kostanay: Result & Stats

Aktobe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FK Tobol Kostanay

G. Gohou 2 90+12'

S. Serderov 54'

A. Amanović 79'

5/14/2022

Premier League · Round 11Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Aktobe44%

×Draw26%

FK Tobol Kostanay30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AktobeExpected goals in this matchFK Tobol Kostanay

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.18

Aktobe

1.47

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.18

Aktobe creates 25% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 92 away

1.68

creates per match

1.32

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Aktobe

1.68

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.32

allows per match

Aktobe

1.03

FK Tobol Kostanay

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aktobe+0.00on par

FK Tobol Kostanay+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aktobe ↓

FK Tobol Kostanay →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aktobe or draw

70%

Aktobe or FK Tobol Kostanay

74%

Draw or FK Tobol Kostanay

56%

Winning margin

Aktobe wins by 2+

21%

FK Tobol Kostanay wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Aktobe 1+ goals

77%

Aktobe 2+ goals

43%

Aktobe 3+ goals

18%

FK Tobol Kostanay 1+ goals

69%

FK Tobol Kostanay 2+ goals

33%

FK Tobol Kostanay 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Aktobe (draw refunded)

59%

FK Tobol Kostanay (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aktobe at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.03 · 79 matches

FK Tobol Kostanay away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.26 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aktobe attack 1.68 + FK Tobol Kostanay defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.47

FK Tobol Kostanay attack 1.32 + Aktobe defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Aktobe scores more

44%

level

26%

FK Tobol Kostanay scores more

30%

Aktobe at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Aktobe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

A. Tagybergen

34'

Rúben Brígido← A. Zhaksylykov

41'

45+2'

45+2'

54'

57'

67'

67'

Y. Logvinenko← R. Kambolov

69'

S. Zharynbetov← V. Vasiljev

77'

Y. Kybyray← V. Ghenaitis

79'

A. Amanović

90+6'

Y. Kybyray

90+8'

D. Jovancic

90'

G. Gohou← M. Samorodov

90+12'

G. Gohou 2

Statistics

AktobeFK

Overview

3Corners6

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3