Akron 2–0 Fakel Voronezh: Result & Stats

Akron

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fakel Voronezh

11/17/2021

First League · Round 23Stadion Kristall Zhigulyovsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Akron42%

×Draw28%

Fakel Voronezh30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AkronExpected goals in this matchFakel Voronezh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Akron

1.31

Fakel Voronezh

1.06

Akron creates 24% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 89 away

1.30

creates per match

1.20

0.93

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Akron

1.30

Fakel Voronezh

1.20

allows per match

Akron

0.93

Fakel Voronezh

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Akron+0.00on par

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akron ↓

Fakel Voronezh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Akron or draw

70%

Akron or Fakel Voronezh

72%

Draw or Fakel Voronezh

58%

Winning margin

Akron wins by 2+

19%

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Akron 1+ goals

73%

Akron 2+ goals

38%

Akron 3+ goals

14%

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals

65%

Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals

29%

Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Akron (draw refunded)

58%

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akron at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.93 · 74 matches

Fakel Voronezh away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akron attack 1.30 + Fakel Voronezh defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.20 + Akron defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Akron scores more

42%

level

28%

Fakel Voronezh scores more

30%

Akron at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Akron will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff