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Akhisarspor vs Adana Demirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
4/10/20211. Lig1. Lig · Round 29Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Akhisarspor49%
×Draw24%
Adana Demirspor26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akhisarspor
1.68
Adana Demirspor
1.16

Akhisarspor creates 45% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 72 away

creates per match

Akhisarspor
1.29
Adana Demirspor
1.22

allows per match

Akhisarspor
1.09
Adana Demirspor
2.07

finishing

Akhisarspor+0.00on par
Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akhisarspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Akhisarspor or draw
74%
Akhisarspor or Adana Demirspor
76%
Draw or Adana Demirspor
51%

Winning margin

Akhisarspor wins by 2+
26%
Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Akhisarspor 1+ goals
81%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
50%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
24%
Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
69%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
32%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
65%
Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akhisarspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.09 · 35 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akhisarspor attack 1.29 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.68

Adana Demirspor attack 1.22 + Akhisarspor defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Akhisarspor scores more
49%
level
24%
Adana Demirspor scores more
26%

Akhisarspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Akhisarspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Akhisarspor 2–3 Adana Demirspor

Adana Demirspor beat Akhisarspor 3-2 in 1. Lig on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Spor Toto Akhisar Belediye Stadı in Akhisar.