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Adana Demirspor vs Akhisarspor — 1. Lig 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Akhisarspor
Akhisarspor
12/6/20201. Lig1. Lig · Round 125 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Adana Demirspor45%
×Draw23%
Akhisarspor32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
1.79
Akhisarspor
1.48

Adana Demirspor creates 21% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 35 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
1.74
Akhisarspor
1.14

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.82
Akhisarspor
1.83

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Akhisarspor+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Akhisarspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
68%
Adana Demirspor or Akhisarspor
77%
Draw or Akhisarspor
55%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
24%
Akhisarspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
83%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
53%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
26%
Akhisarspor 1+ goals
77%
Akhisarspor 2+ goals
43%
Akhisarspor 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
58%
Akhisarspor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 73 matches

Akhisarspor away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Akhisarspor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Akhisarspor attack 1.14 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
45%
level
23%
Akhisarspor scores more
32%

Adana Demirspor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Adana Demirspor 2–0 Akhisarspor

Adana Demirspor beat Akhisarspor 2-0 in 1. Lig on December 6, 2020.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.