Ajax 2–1 NAC Breda: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Ajax

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

NAC Breda

K. Taylor 46'

O. Gloukh 4'

S. van Hooijdonk 16' (pen)

9/27/2025

Eredivisie · Round 7Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ajax54%

×Draw22%

NAC Breda24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaxExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.18

Ajax

1.90

NAC Breda

1.18

Ajax creates 61% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

1.88

creates per match

1.29

1.06

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Ajax

1.88

NAC Breda

1.29

allows per match

Ajax

1.06

NAC Breda

1.91

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Ajax+0.08on par

NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ajax or draw

76%

Ajax or NAC Breda

78%

Draw or NAC Breda

46%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+

31%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals

85%

Ajax 2+ goals

56%

Ajax 3+ goals

29%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

69%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

33%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)

70%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 23 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.88 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + Ajax defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ajax scores more

54%

level

22%

NAC Breda scores more

24%

Ajax at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

D. Bielica

NAC Breda · G

8.5

Match Events

4'

O. Gloukh↳ M. Godts

14'

Boy KemperPenalty confirmed

16'

S. van HooijdonkPenalty

35'

Sydney van HooijdonkGoal cancelled

39'

40'

41'

45+3'

46'

46'

R. Moro← O. Edvardsen

46'

K. Taylor

49'

Kenneth TaylorGoal confirmed

64'

71'

71'

74'

76'

S. Berghuis← M. Godts

81'

C. Leemans← L. Holtby

82'

R. Paula← M. Nassoh

82'

C. Valerius← B. Lucassen

84'

K. Fitz-Jim← D. Klaassen

84'

W. Weghorst← O. Gloukh

88'

D. Versluis← K. Sowah

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaxNAC

Overview

51%Possession49%

12Total Shots17

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.56

2Corners7

11Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots17

7On Target7

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

10Inside Box14

2Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

452Total Passes434

372Accurate Passes345

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

6Saves4

0.83Goals Prevented0.83

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3

Eredivisie: Ajax 2–1 NAC Breda

Ajax beat NAC Breda 2-1 in Eredivisie on September 27, 2025.

Goals: O. Gloukh (4'), S. van Hooijdonk (16' pen), K. Taylor (46').

Ajax controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 17.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.

Ajax vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eredivisie: Ajax 2–1 NAC Breda