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Ajax vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2026

Ajax
Ajax
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
2/17/2019EredivisieEredivisie · Round 22Johan Cruijff Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Ajax54%
×Draw22%
NAC Breda24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajax
1.90
NAC Breda
1.18

Ajax creates 61% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ajax
1.88
NAC Breda
1.29

allows per match

Ajax
1.06
NAC Breda
1.91

finishing

Ajax+0.08on par
NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ajax or draw
76%
Ajax or NAC Breda
78%
Draw or NAC Breda
46%

Winning margin

Ajax wins by 2+
31%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ajax 1+ goals
85%
Ajax 2+ goals
56%
Ajax 3+ goals
29%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
69%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
33%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ajax (draw refunded)
70%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.06 · 23 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax attack 1.88 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + Ajax defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Ajax scores more
54%
level
22%
NAC Breda scores more
24%

Ajax at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Ajax will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ajax vs NAC Breda

Ajax beat NAC Breda 5-0 in Eredivisie on February 17, 2019.

The match was played at Johan Cruijff Arena in Amsterdam.