Ajaccio 1–0 Sochaux: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Ajaccio

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sochaux

G. Courtet 75'

9/11/2021

Ligue 2 · Round 7Stade François Coty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 159+ matches

Ajaccio43%

×Draw30%

Sochaux28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AjaccioExpected goals in this matchSochaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.90

Ajaccio

1.19

Sochaux

0.90

Ajaccio creates 32% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 159 away

1.29

creates per match

0.99

0.80

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Ajaccio

1.29

Sochaux

0.99

allows per match

Ajaccio

0.80

Sochaux

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par

Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Sochaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw

72%

Ajaccio or Sochaux

70%

Draw or Sochaux

57%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+

18%

Sochaux wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals

70%

Ajaccio 2+ goals

33%

Ajaccio 3+ goals

12%

Sochaux 1+ goals

59%

Sochaux 2+ goals

23%

Sochaux 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)

61%

Sochaux (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 191 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.29 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Ajaccio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ajaccio scores more

43%

level

30%

Sochaux scores more

28%

Ajaccio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

B. Leroy

Ajaccio · G

7.5

Match Events

24'

26'

29'

55'

65'

S. Ambri← M. Teixeira

68'

B. Moussiti-Oko← J. Botué Kouamé

68'

A. N'Diaye← Y. Cimignani

70'

Gaëtan Courtet

75'

G. Courtet↳ M. Coutadeur

79'

Steve Ambri

80'

Bevic Moussiti Oko

80'

R. Ndiaye← Y. Kaabouni

80'

H. Tebily← O. Thioune

82'

Ismaël Diallo

82'

C. Avinel← I. Diallo

82'

C. Vidal← O. Gonzalez

87'

A. Virginius← T. Mauricio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AjaccioSochaux

Overview

46%Possession54%

11Total Shots7

5Corners6

13Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots7

5On Target1

1Off Target4

5Blocked2

7Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

46%Possession54%

364Total Passes425

266Accurate Passes306

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Offsides6