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Ajaccio vs Sochaux — Ligue 2 2010

Ajaccio
Ajaccio
CANC
00:00
Sochaux
Sochaux
3/20/2020Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade François Coty (Ajaccio)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 159+ matches

Ajaccio43%
×Draw30%
Sochaux28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ajaccio
1.19
Sochaux
0.90

Ajaccio creates 32% more chances

Season form · 191 home / 159 away

creates per match

Ajaccio
1.29
Sochaux
0.99

allows per match

Ajaccio
0.80
Sochaux
1.08

finishing

Ajaccio+0.00on par
Sochaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 65Over: 3565%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 59Yes: 4159%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajaccio ↓

Sochaux →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ajaccio or draw
72%
Ajaccio or Sochaux
70%
Draw or Sochaux
57%

Winning margin

Ajaccio wins by 2+
18%
Sochaux wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ajaccio 1+ goals
70%
Ajaccio 2+ goals
33%
Ajaccio 3+ goals
12%
Sochaux 1+ goals
59%
Sochaux 2+ goals
23%
Sochaux 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ajaccio (draw refunded)
61%
Sochaux (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajaccio at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.80 · 191 matches

Sochaux away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.08 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajaccio attack 1.29 + Sochaux defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sochaux attack 0.99 + Ajaccio defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ajaccio scores more
43%
level
30%
Sochaux scores more
28%

Ajaccio at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ajaccio will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ajaccio vs Sochaux — Match Preview

Ajaccio face Sochaux on March 20, 2020 in this Ligue 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Ajaccio host Sochaux at Stade François Coty (Ajaccio).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.