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AIK W vs Linköping W — Damallsvenskan 2020

AIK W
AIK W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Linköping W
Linköping W
A. Bogucka 90'
A. Grabus 54'
3/22/2025DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 1Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AIK W34%
×Draw25%
Linköping W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK W
1.34
Linköping W
1.47

Linköping W creates 10% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

AIK W
1.01
Linköping W
1.17

allows per match

AIK W
1.77
Linköping W
1.68

finishing

AIK W+0.24scores more
Linköping W-0.50scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Linköping W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AIK W or draw
60%
AIK W or Linköping W
75%
Draw or Linköping W
66%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+
15%
Linköping W wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals
74%
AIK W 2+ goals
39%
AIK W 3+ goals
15%
Linköping W 1+ goals
77%
Linköping W 2+ goals
43%
Linköping W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)
46%
Linköping W (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.77 · 8 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.68 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.01 + Linköping W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Linköping W attack 1.17 + AIK W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AIK W scores more
34%
level
25%
Linköping W scores more
40%

Linköping W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
M. PlanAIK WAIK W · D
8.3

Match Events

34'
Olivia Lindstedt
54'
A. Grabus↳ N. Selin
59'
L. Halttunen← M. De Jongh
64'
A. Bogucka← A. Grabus
71'
M. Brenn← M. Gros
71'
E. Lundin← E. Bakker
77'
N. Eriksen-Yasseri← H. Tabata
77'
P. Fischerova← D. Famili
86'
P. Doran← L. Bjork
86'
T. Andersson← S. Eriksson
90+2'
A. Beard← N. Selin
90'
A. Bogucka

Possession

42%AIK

Shots

14AIK

Pass accuracy

47%AIK

Statistics

AIKLinköping
Overview
42%Possession58%
14Total Shots9
1.24Expected Goals (xG)0.83
1Corners3
11Fouls7
Shots
14Total Shots9
6On Target3
4Off Target3
4Blocked3
8Inside Box5
6Outside Box4
Passing
42%Possession58%
367Total Passes624
271Accurate Passes515
74%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
11Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
4Offsides0

Match Recap: AIK W vs Linköping W

AIK W beat Linköping W 2-0 in Damallsvenskan on March 22, 2025.

Goals: A. Grabus (54'), A. Bogucka (90').

Linköping W controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 14.

The match was played at Skytteholms IP in Solna.