AIK W 1–0 Linköping W: Result & Stats

AIK W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Linköping W

B. Olsson 5'

9/28/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 21Skytteholms IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

AIK W34%

×Draw24%

Linköping W42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK WExpected goals in this matchLinköping W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.58

AIK W

1.40

Linköping W

1.58

Linköping W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

1.51

1.65

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

AIK W

1.21

Linköping W

1.51

allows per match

AIK W

1.65

Linköping W

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AIK W+0.00on par

Linköping W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK W ↓

Linköping W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

AIK W or draw

58%

AIK W or Linköping W

76%

Draw or Linköping W

66%

Winning margin

AIK W wins by 2+

15%

Linköping W wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

AIK W 1+ goals

75%

AIK W 2+ goals

41%

AIK W 3+ goals

17%

Linköping W 1+ goals

79%

Linköping W 2+ goals

47%

Linköping W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

AIK W (draw refunded)

45%

Linköping W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK W at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

Linköping W away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.59 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK W attack 1.21 + Linköping W defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Linköping W attack 1.51 + AIK W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AIK W scores more

34%

level

24%

Linköping W scores more

42%

Linköping W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Linköping W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

J. Whyman

AIK W · G

8.2

Match Events

5'

B. Olsson

43'

Moa Sjöström

45+2'

I. Dirdal← E. Bakker

65'

M. Rojas Flores← M. Johansson

65'

A. Claypole← D. Pridham

76'

M. Brenn← A. Beard

76'

T. Andersson← P. Doran

84'

D. Famili← M. Sjöström

85'

A. Svensson← E. Jansson

90+5'

Beata Olsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKLinköping

Overview

36%Possession64%

21Total Shots13

2.52Expected Goals (xG)0.81

6Corners6

11Fouls7

Shots

21Total Shots13

7On Target5

8Off Target4

5Blocked3

15Inside Box5

6Outside Box8

Passing

36%Possession64%

307Total Passes566

207Accurate Passes460

67%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1