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AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
J. Guidetti 19'
J. Hove 3'
4/27/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 6Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AIK Stockholm47%
×Draw25%
IF Elfsborg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.60
IF Elfsborg
1.20

AIK Stockholm creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 20 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.57
IF Elfsborg
1.27

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.13
IF Elfsborg
1.62

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more
IF Elfsborg-0.37scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
71%
AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg
75%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
53%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
24%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
80%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
47%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
22%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
70%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
34%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
62%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.60

IF Elfsborg attack 1.27 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
47%
level
25%
IF Elfsborg scores more
29%

AIK Stockholm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
J. GuidettiAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · F
8.6

Match Events

3'
J. Hove↳ J. Guidetti
19'
J. Guidetti↳ B. Celina
63'
A. Sigurpalsson← G. Rapp
68'
A. Fesshaie← J. Guidetti
78'
V. Andersson← J. Hove
78'
P. Frick← F. Ihler
78'
R. Kaib← N. Hult
80'
Alexander Fesshaie
83'
L. Hagg← I. Pettersson
85'
Victor Andersson
90+4'
K. Karlsson← B. Celina

Possession

40%AIK

Shots

15AIK

Pass accuracy

49%AIK

Statistics

AIKIF
Overview
40%Possession60%
15Total Shots11
1.07Expected Goals (xG)0.69
2Corners4
17Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots11
6On Target3
3Off Target4
6Blocked4
8Inside Box8
7Outside Box3
Passing
40%Possession60%
378Total Passes557
302Accurate Passes462
80%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
17Fouls11
2Yellow Cards0

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg

AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 2-0 in Allsvenskan on April 27, 2025.

Goals: J. Hove (3'), J. Guidetti (19').

IF Elfsborg controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.