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AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg — Allsvenskan 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IF Elfsborg
IF Elfsborg
D. Beširović 68'
I. Pittas 2'
S. Hedlund 82' (pen)
10/27/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 28Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

AIK Stockholm47%
×Draw25%
IF Elfsborg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.61
IF Elfsborg
1.21

AIK Stockholm creates 33% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 19 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.57
IF Elfsborg
1.30

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.13
IF Elfsborg
1.65

finishing

AIK Stockholm+0.15scores more
IF Elfsborg-0.35scores less

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

IF Elfsborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
71%
AIK Stockholm or IF Elfsborg
75%
Draw or IF Elfsborg
53%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
24%
IF Elfsborg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
80%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
48%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
22%
IF Elfsborg 1+ goals
70%
IF Elfsborg 2+ goals
34%
IF Elfsborg 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
62%
IF Elfsborg (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.13 · 25 matches

IF Elfsborg away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.65 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.57 + IF Elfsborg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.61

IF Elfsborg attack 1.30 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
47%
level
25%
IF Elfsborg scores more
29%

AIK Stockholm at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
I. PittasAIK StockholmAIK Stockholm · F
8.0

Match Events

2'
I. Pittas↳ O. Valakari
66'
R. Kaib← N. Hult
68'
D. Beširović
71'
Timothy Ouma
74'
E. Guðmundsson← M. Baidoo
75'
G. Rapp← A. Zeneli
75'
A. Baldursson← G. Henriksson
76'
Ahmad Faqa← D. Beširović
81'
L. Östman← E. Holten
82'
S. HedlundPenalty
86'
J. Guidetti← I. Pittas
90+4'
Eskil Edh
90+3'
S. Wilson← A. Salétros

Possession

48%AIK

Shots

16AIK

Pass accuracy

51%AIK

Statistics

AIKIF
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots4
1.16Expected Goals (xG)1.16
3Corners6
10Fouls17
Shots
16Total Shots4
5On Target2
5Off Target1
6Blocked1
8Inside Box4
8Outside Box0
Passing
48%Possession52%
410Total Passes441
311Accurate Passes325
76%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 2–1 IF Elfsborg

AIK Stockholm beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 27, 2024.

Goals: I. Pittas (2'), D. Beširović (68'), S. Hedlund (82' pen).

IF Elfsborg controlled possession (52%) and registered 4 shots to 16.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.