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AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2026

AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hammarby FF
Hammarby FF
5/18/2025AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 10Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

AIK Stockholm36%
×Draw29%
Hammarby FF35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AIK Stockholm
1.13
Hammarby FF
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

AIK Stockholm
1.41
Hammarby FF
1.10

allows per match

AIK Stockholm
1.10
Hammarby FF
0.84

finishing

AIK Stockholm-0.16scores less
Hammarby FF-0.10scores less

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Hammarby FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw
65%
AIK Stockholm or Hammarby FF
71%
Draw or Hammarby FF
64%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
15%
Hammarby FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
68%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
31%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
11%
Hammarby FF 1+ goals
67%
Hammarby FF 2+ goals
30%
Hammarby FF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
51%
Hammarby FF (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.84 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.41 + Hammarby FF defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hammarby FF attack 1.10 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more
36%
level
29%
Hammarby FF scores more
35%

AIK Stockholm at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
V. ErikssonHammarby FFHammarby FF · D
7.9

Match Events

11'
Bersant Celina
11'
Pavle Vagić
12'
Sebastian Tounekti
43'
Dino Beširović
58'
J. Uronen← D. Besirovic
82'
S. Strand← S. Tounekti
82'
M. Madjed← P. Abraham
86'
J. Hove← V. Andersson
90+2'
Thomas Isherwood
90+2'
Abdelrahman Boudah
90+1'
A. Kakoullis← J. Guidetti

Possession

41%AIK

Shots

15AIK

Pass accuracy

46%AIK

Statistics

AIKHammarby
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots9
1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.63
7Corners4
12Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots9
2On Target2
10Off Target6
3Blocked1
10Inside Box4
5Outside Box5
Passing
41%Possession59%
301Total Passes453
202Accurate Passes355
67%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls11
3Yellow Cards3
0Offsides2

Match Recap: AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm and Hammarby FF drew 0-0 in Allsvenskan on May 18, 2025.

Hammarby FF controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.