AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FF: Result & Stats

AIK Stockholm

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hammarby FF

J. Guidetti 90+2'

9/29/2024

Allsvenskan · Round 25Strawberry Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AIK Stockholm41%

×Draw29%

Hammarby FF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AIK StockholmExpected goals in this matchHammarby FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.02

AIK Stockholm

1.23

Hammarby FF

1.02

AIK Stockholm creates 21% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.48

creates per match

1.01

1.02

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

AIK Stockholm

1.48

Hammarby FF

1.01

allows per match

AIK Stockholm

1.02

Hammarby FF

0.98

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

AIK Stockholm-0.26scores less

Hammarby FF-0.12scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AIK Stockholm ↓

Hammarby FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

AIK Stockholm or draw

69%

AIK Stockholm or Hammarby FF

71%

Draw or Hammarby FF

59%

Winning margin

AIK Stockholm wins by 2+

18%

Hammarby FF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AIK Stockholm 1+ goals

71%

AIK Stockholm 2+ goals

35%

AIK Stockholm 3+ goals

13%

Hammarby FF 1+ goals

64%

Hammarby FF 2+ goals

27%

Hammarby FF 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)

57%

Hammarby FF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AIK Stockholm at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.02 · 9 matches

Hammarby FF away — creates 1.01, concedes 0.98 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AIK Stockholm attack 1.48 + Hammarby FF defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hammarby FF attack 1.01 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AIK Stockholm scores more

41%

level

29%

Hammarby FF scores more

31%

AIK Stockholm at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

O. Valakari

AIK Stockholm · M

7.7

Match Events

29'

Lamine Dabo

46'

I. Fofana← M. Karlsson

64'

S. Strand← H. Skoglund

69'

D. Beširović← B. Celina

69'

J. Guidetti← O. Valakari

86'

O. Johansson Schellhas← B. Touré

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+8'

90+4'

Montader Madjed← T. Tekie

90+4'

D. Teah← F. Hammar

90+2'

J. Guidetti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AIKHammarby

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots5

2.04Expected Goals (xG)0.31

5Corners2

15Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots5

4On Target1

6Off Target2

1Blocked2

8Inside Box2

3Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

382Total Passes430

270Accurate Passes299

71%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls15

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FF

AIK Stockholm beat Hammarby FF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on September 29, 2024.

Goals: J. Guidetti (90+2').

Hammarby FF controlled possession (53%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Strawberry Arena in Solna.

AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF — Allsvenskan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Allsvenskan: AIK Stockholm 1–0 Hammarby FF