Águilas Doradas 1–2 Once Caldas: Result & Stats

Águilas Doradas

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Once Caldas

M. Restrepo 63'

M. García 73', 22'

9/21/2019

Primera A · Clausura - 12Estadio Alberto Grisales

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Águilas Doradas42%

×Draw28%

Once Caldas30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Águilas DoradasExpected goals in this matchOnce Caldas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.02

Águilas Doradas

1.25

Once Caldas

1.02

Águilas Doradas creates 23% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

1.27

creates per match

0.92

1.11

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Águilas Doradas

1.27

Once Caldas

0.92

allows per match

Águilas Doradas

1.11

Once Caldas

1.23

-0.27scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Águilas Doradas-0.27scores less

Once Caldas+0.28scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Águilas Doradas ↓

Once Caldas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Águilas Doradas or draw

70%

Águilas Doradas or Once Caldas

72%

Draw or Once Caldas

58%

Winning margin

Águilas Doradas wins by 2+

18%

Once Caldas wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Águilas Doradas 1+ goals

71%

Águilas Doradas 2+ goals

36%

Águilas Doradas 3+ goals

13%

Once Caldas 1+ goals

64%

Once Caldas 2+ goals

27%

Once Caldas 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Águilas Doradas (draw refunded)

58%

Once Caldas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Águilas Doradas at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.11 · 6 matches

Once Caldas away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Águilas Doradas attack 1.27 + Once Caldas defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Once Caldas attack 0.92 + Águilas Doradas defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Águilas Doradas scores more

42%

level

28%

Once Caldas scores more

30%

Águilas Doradas at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Águilas Doradas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

M. García

Once Caldas · F

8.3

Match Events

22'

29'

37'

49'

61'

63'

J. Carbonero← K. Londoño

63'

M. Restrepo

73'

M. García↳ D. Peralta

75'

J. Otálvaro← J. Obrian

79'

G. Martínez← F. Rodríguez

82'

83'

84'

85'

86'

J. Escobar← A. Rentería

90+1'

A. Estacio← M. Carreazo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ÁguilasOnce

Overview

54%Possession46%

13Total Shots12

6Corners1

12Fouls25

Shots

13Total Shots12

3On Target4

5Off Target6

5Blocked2

3Inside Box5

10Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

437Total Passes384

353Accurate Passes294

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls25

4Yellow Cards3

6Offsides1

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Once Caldas

Once Caldas beat Águilas Doradas 2-1 in Primera A on September 21, 2019.

Goals: M. García (22', 73'), M. Restrepo (63').

Águilas Doradas controlled possession (54%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Grisales in Rionegro.

Águilas Doradas vs Once Caldas — Primera A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Águilas Doradas vs Once Caldas