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Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Ashdod — League #496 2026

Agudat Sport Ashdod
Agudat Sport Ashdod
PST
00:00
Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
4/25/2020League #496League #496 · South - 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Agudat Sport Ashdod38%
×Draw28%
Maccabi Ashdod34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.21
Maccabi Ashdod
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

creates per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
1.23
Maccabi Ashdod
1.40

allows per match

Agudat Sport Ashdod
0.85
Maccabi Ashdod
1.20

finishing

Agudat Sport Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Agudat Sport Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Agudat Sport Ashdod or draw
66%
Agudat Sport Ashdod or Maccabi Ashdod
72%
Draw or Maccabi Ashdod
62%

Winning margin

Agudat Sport Ashdod wins by 2+
16%
Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Agudat Sport Ashdod 1+ goals
70%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 2+ goals
34%
Agudat Sport Ashdod 3+ goals
12%
Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
31%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Agudat Sport Ashdod (draw refunded)
53%
Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Agudat Sport Ashdod at home — creates 1.23, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Maccabi Ashdod away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Agudat Sport Ashdod attack 1.23 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.21

Maccabi Ashdod attack 1.40 + Agudat Sport Ashdod defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Agudat Sport Ashdod scores more
38%
level
28%
Maccabi Ashdod scores more
34%

Agudat Sport Ashdod at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Agudat Sport Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Agudat Sport Ashdod vs Maccabi Ashdod — Match Preview

Agudat Sport Ashdod face Maccabi Ashdod on April 25, 2020 in this League #496 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.