Afturelding 2–2 Breidablik: Result & Stats

Afturelding

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Breidablik

B. Stokke 47'

H. Magnusson 44'

A. Orrason 37'

O. Omarsson 7'

7/3/2025

Úrvalsdeild · Round 14Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Afturelding43%

×Draw23%

Breidablik34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchBreidablik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.55

Afturelding

1.77

Breidablik

1.55

Afturelding creates 14% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 22 away

1.85

creates per match

1.73

1.38

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Afturelding

1.85

Breidablik

1.73

allows per match

Afturelding

1.38

Breidablik

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Breidablik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Breidablik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

66%

Afturelding or Breidablik

77%

Draw or Breidablik

57%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

23%

Breidablik wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

83%

Afturelding 2+ goals

53%

Afturelding 3+ goals

26%

Breidablik 1+ goals

79%

Breidablik 2+ goals

46%

Breidablik 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

56%

Breidablik (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Breidablik away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 1.85 + Breidablik defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.77

Breidablik attack 1.73 + Afturelding defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Afturelding scores more

43%

level

23%

Breidablik scores more

34%

Afturelding at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

O. Omarsson↳ A. Orrason

14'

A. Jonsson

16'

G. Hallsson← A. Yeoman

37'

A. Orrason↳ V. Valgeirsson

43'

H. Magnusson

44'

H. Magnusson↳ E. Cogic

47'

B. Stokke↳ A. Saevarsson

57'

V. Margeirsson

64'

V. Valgeirsson

67'

B. Runolfsson← G. Sigmarsson

67'

O. Sigurjonsson← E. Cogic

67'

K. Jonsson← V. Valgeirsson

67'

K. Kristinsson← O. Omarsson

74'

A. Bjarnason← K. Steindorsson

83'

T. G. Hafthorsson← E. Cogic

85'

A. Orrason

90+4'

A. Saevarsson

90+1'

A. Ragnarsson← B. Stokke

Afturelding

Breidablik

1

Einarsson

17

A

▼

Valgeirss

30

▼

Yeoman

10

▼

Steindors

21

Margeirss

4

⚽A

6

8

77

15

9

⚽

▼

Omarsson

1

Andresson

2

▼

Sigmarsso

6

A

16

8

3

27

▼

Cogic

10

A

▼

Cogic

20

⚽

▼

Stokke

7

Johannsso

77

⚽

Magnusson

Manager: Magnús Már Einarsson

67'▲B. Runolfsson←▼G. Sigmarsson

67'▲O. Sigurjonsson←▼E. Cogic

83'▲T. G. Hafthorsson←▼E. Cogic

90+1'▲A. Ragnarsson←▼B. Stokke

Afturelding substitutes

79Dadason12Johannesson25Bjarnason23Palsson21Hafthorsson19Hugason4Runolfsson22Grondal11Ragnarsson30Sigurjonsson

Manager: Halldór Árnason

16'▲G. Hallsson←▼A. Yeoman

67'▲K. Jonsson←▼V. Valgeirsson

67'▲K. Kristinsson←▼O. Omarsson

74'▲A. Bjarnason←▼K. Steindorsson

Breidablik substitutes

33Snaeholm19Jonsson11Bjarnason31Gunnleifsson29Hallsson39Agustsson28Thorsteinsson24Gautason23Kristinsson

Úrvalsdeild: Afturelding 2–2 Breidablik

Afturelding and Breidablik drew 2-2 in Úrvalsdeild on July 3, 2025.

Goals: O. Omarsson (7'), A. Orrason (37'), H. Magnusson (44'), B. Stokke (47').

The match was played at Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras in Mosfellsbaer.

Afturelding vs Breidablik — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Úrvalsdeild: Afturelding 2–2 Breidablik