Afturelding 1–3 Breidablik: Result & Stats

Afturelding

FT

1 – 3

Breidablik

G. Bjarnason 82'

H. Gunnlaugsson 18', 4'

V. Einarsson 7'

2/21/2020

League #168 · Group 1 - 2N1-völlurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Afturelding9%

×Draw12%

Breidablik80%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AftureldingExpected goals in this matchBreidablik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

3.44

Afturelding

1.10

Breidablik

3.44

Breidablik creates 213% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.20

creates per match

2.67

4.20

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Afturelding

1.20

Breidablik

2.67

allows per match

Afturelding

4.20

Breidablik

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par

Breidablik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

Breidablik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–27%

0–38%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–27%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw

20%

Afturelding or Breidablik

88%

Draw or Breidablik

91%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+

3%

Breidablik wins by 2+

62%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals

67%

Afturelding 2+ goals

30%

Afturelding 3+ goals

10%

Breidablik 1+ goals

97%

Breidablik 2+ goals

85%

Breidablik 3+ goals

65%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)

10%

Breidablik (draw refunded)

90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 1.20, concedes 4.20 · 5 matches

Breidablik away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 1.20 + Breidablik defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Breidablik attack 2.67 + Afturelding defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 3.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Afturelding scores more

9%

level

12%

Breidablik scores more

80%

Breidablik at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Breidablik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

H. Gunnlaugsson

7'

V. Einarsson

18'

H. Gunnlaugsson

82'

G. Bjarnason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff