Afjet Afyonspor 0–2 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Afjet Afyonspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Adana Demirspor

4/7/2019

1. Lig · Round 28Zafer Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Afjet Afyonspor40%

×Draw24%

Adana Demirspor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Afjet AfyonsporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.49

Afjet Afyonspor

1.59

Adana Demirspor

1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 72 away

1.12

creates per match

1.22

1.76

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Afjet Afyonspor

1.12

Adana Demirspor

1.22

allows per match

Afjet Afyonspor

1.76

Adana Demirspor

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afjet Afyonspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Afjet Afyonspor or draw

64%

Afjet Afyonspor or Adana Demirspor

76%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

60%

Winning margin

Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+

20%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals

80%

Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals

47%

Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals

21%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

77%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

44%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)

53%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afjet Afyonspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.12 + Adana Demirspor defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Adana Demirspor attack 1.22 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Afjet Afyonspor scores more

40%

level

24%

Adana Demirspor scores more

36%

Afjet Afyonspor at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Afjet Afyonspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff