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Adana Demirspor vs Afjet Afyonspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Adana Demirspor
Adana Demirspor
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
11/25/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 4th Round5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Adana Demirspor82%
×Draw11%
Afjet Afyonspor7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adana Demirspor
3.54
Afjet Afyonspor
1.00

Adana Demirspor creates 254% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Adana Demirspor
3.33
Afjet Afyonspor
1.00

allows per match

Adana Demirspor
1.00
Afjet Afyonspor
3.75

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par
Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw
93%
Adana Demirspor or Afjet Afyonspor
89%
Draw or Afjet Afyonspor
18%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+
66%
Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals
97%
Adana Demirspor 2+ goals
86%
Adana Demirspor 3+ goals
66%
Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
63%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
26%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)
92%
Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 3.33 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.54

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.00 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more
82%
level
11%
Afjet Afyonspor scores more
7%

Adana Demirspor at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Adana Demirspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Adana Demirspor 4–1 Afjet Afyonspor

Adana Demirspor beat Afjet Afyonspor 4-1 in Türkiye Kupası on November 25, 2020.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.