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AFC Wimbledon vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

AFC Wimbledon
AFC Wimbledon
Preview
15:00
Leyton Orient
Leyton Orient
3/20/2027League OneLeague One · Round 36The Cherry Red Records Stadium
40%
AFC Wimbledon
model favours
40%25%36%

80% of Leyton Orient’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

AFC Wimbledon40%
×Draw25%
Leyton Orient36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Wimbledon
1.48
Leyton Orient
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.18
Leyton Orient
1.07

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon
1.71
Leyton Orient
1.78

finishing

AFC Wimbledon-0.08on par
Leyton Orient-0.18scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Leyton Orient →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw
64%
AFC Wimbledon or Leyton Orient
75%
Draw or Leyton Orient
60%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+
19%
Leyton Orient wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals
77%
AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals
43%
AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals
19%
Leyton Orient 1+ goals
75%
Leyton Orient 2+ goals
40%
Leyton Orient 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)
53%
Leyton Orient (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 10 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.18 + Leyton Orient defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.48

Leyton Orient attack 1.07 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more
40%
level
25%
Leyton Orient scores more
36%

AFC Wimbledon at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Leyton Orient score first in only 30% of matches
  • Leyton Orient have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams score in 70% of Leyton Orient’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
AFC Wimbledon
Balanced
Leyton Orient
Balanced
47%PossessionBiggest gap53%
68%Pass accuracy71%
10.6Shots11.3
1.14xG1.07
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AFC WimbledonLeyton Orient

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

2
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
2
Leyton Orient
Avg goals: 3.3BTTS: 50%
2–43–10–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Wimbledon
DWLWL
Orient
LLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Wimbledon face Leyton Orient (League One)

League One returns with AFC Wimbledon hosting Leyton Orient. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

AFC Wimbledon host Leyton Orient at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.