AFC Hermannstadt 2–1 CS Universitatea Craiova

AFC Hermannstadt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CS Universitatea Craiova

O. Viera 54'

P. Petrescu 50'

V. Constantin 3'

8/4/2019

Liga I · Round 4Stadionul Trans-Sil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt35%

×Draw28%

CS Universitatea Craiova38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC HermannstadtExpected goals in this matchCS Universitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.22

AFC Hermannstadt

1.16

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 157 away

1.20

creates per match

1.38

1.06

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.20

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt

1.06

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

CS Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw

62%

AFC Hermannstadt or CS Universitatea Craiova

72%

Draw or CS Universitatea Craiova

65%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+

14%

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals

69%

AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals

32%

AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals

11%

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

34%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)

48%

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

CS Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.11 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.16

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more

35%

level

28%

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

38%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

-5'

Renato Kelić

3'

V. Constantin↳ Ş. Vlădoiu

33'

Stefan Vlădoiu

42'

Antoni Ivanov

45'

Vasile Nicolae Constantin

46'

David Caiado← L. Buzan

46'

A. Mateiu← C. Bărbuţ

50'

P. Petrescu

51'

Kamer Qaka

54'

O. Viera↳ David Caiado

58'

A. Cicâldău← V. Constantin

64'

Tiago Ferreira

67'

M. Roman← Carlos Fortes

71'

Ș. Blănaru← Yazalde

74'

Ousmane Viera

75'

A. Dandea← P. Petrescu

87'

87'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AFCCS

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots8

8Corners4

17Fouls25

Shots

13Total Shots8

9On Target3

4Off Target5

Passing

44%Possession56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

17Fouls25

2Yellow Cards7

1Red Cards0

1Offsides0