Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AFC Eskilstuna vs Umeå FC — Ettan - Norra 2019

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
Preview
13:00
Umeå FC
Umeå FC
8/2/2026Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 15Tunavallen
39%
AFC Eskilstuna
model favours
39%24%37%

Umeå FC score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna39%
×Draw24%
Umeå FC37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Umeå FC
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 82 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.68
Umeå FC
1.51

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.59
Umeå FC
1.51

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Umeå FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
63%
AFC Eskilstuna or Umeå FC
76%
Draw or Umeå FC
61%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
19%
Umeå FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
80%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
47%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
21%
Umeå FC 1+ goals
79%
Umeå FC 2+ goals
46%
Umeå FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
51%
Umeå FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.59 · 37 matches

Umeå FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.68 + Umeå FC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.59

Umeå FC attack 1.51 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
39%
level
24%
Umeå FC scores more
37%

AFC Eskilstuna at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Eskilstuna
WDWWW
FC
LLWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: AFC Eskilstuna host Umeå FC

August 2, 2026: AFC Eskilstuna take on Umeå FC in Ettan - Norra. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

AFC Eskilstuna host Umeå FC at Tunavallen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.