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AFC Eskilstuna vs Skövde AIK — Superettan 2026

AFC Eskilstuna
AFC Eskilstuna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Skövde AIK
Skövde AIK
E. Agyemang Duah 90+4'
M. Palomino 52'
A. Culum 9'
7/28/2023SuperettanSuperettan · Round 16Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna55%
×Draw23%
Skövde AIK22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Eskilstuna
1.79
Skövde AIK
1.03

AFC Eskilstuna creates 74% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 47 away

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna
1.58
Skövde AIK
1.11

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna
0.95
Skövde AIK
2.00

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par
Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Skövde AIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw
78%
AFC Eskilstuna or Skövde AIK
77%
Draw or Skövde AIK
45%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+
31%
Skövde AIK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals
83%
AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals
53%
AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals
26%
Skövde AIK 1+ goals
64%
Skövde AIK 2+ goals
28%
Skövde AIK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)
72%
Skövde AIK (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.95 · 79 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.58 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more
55%
level
23%
Skövde AIK scores more
22%

AFC Eskilstuna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
A. Culum
19'
Oskar Lindberg
48'
Darrell Kamdem Tibell
50'
Oscar Lennerskog
52'
M. Palomino
60'
Sergio Mendigutxia← O. Lindberg
61'
A. Yakubu← A. Culum
64'
I. Shamoun← H. Mohammed
73'
A. Ekeroth← Z. Fryers
73'
E. Agyemang Duah← M. Palomino
73'
A. Yusuf← H. Engström
84'
Jesper Modig
90+3'
M. Agerborn← A. Basic
90+4'
E. Agyemang Duah

Possession

54%AFC

Shots

20AFC

Statistics

AFCSkövde
Overview
54%Possession46%
20Total Shots12
8Corners7
10Fouls21
Shots
20Total Shots12
11On Target7
5Off Target4
4Blocked1
Passing
54%Possession46%
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
Discipline
10Fouls21
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Superettan: AFC Eskilstuna 3–0 Skövde AIK

AFC Eskilstuna beat Skövde AIK 3-0 in Superettan on July 28, 2023.

Goals: A. Culum (9'), M. Palomino (52'), E. Agyemang Duah (90+4').

AFC Eskilstuna controlled possession (54%) and registered 20 shots to 12.

The match was played at Tunavallen in Eskilstuna.