AFC Eskilstuna 1–2 Skövde AIK: Result & Stats

AFC Eskilstuna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Skövde AIK

A. Muhsin 30'

M. Mörk 40', 26'

4/30/2022

Superettan · Round 5Tunavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

AFC Eskilstuna55%

×Draw23%

Skövde AIK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC EskilstunaExpected goals in this matchSkövde AIK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.03

AFC Eskilstuna

1.79

Skövde AIK

1.03

AFC Eskilstuna creates 74% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 47 away

1.59

creates per match

1.11

0.95

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

AFC Eskilstuna

1.59

Skövde AIK

1.11

allows per match

AFC Eskilstuna

0.95

Skövde AIK

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Skövde AIK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Eskilstuna ↓

Skövde AIK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

AFC Eskilstuna or draw

78%

AFC Eskilstuna or Skövde AIK

77%

Draw or Skövde AIK

45%

Winning margin

AFC Eskilstuna wins by 2+

31%

Skövde AIK wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

AFC Eskilstuna 1+ goals

83%

AFC Eskilstuna 2+ goals

53%

AFC Eskilstuna 3+ goals

26%

Skövde AIK 1+ goals

64%

Skövde AIK 2+ goals

28%

Skövde AIK 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AFC Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

72%

Skövde AIK (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Eskilstuna at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.95 · 78 matches

Skövde AIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.00 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Eskilstuna attack 1.59 + Skövde AIK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Skövde AIK attack 1.11 + AFC Eskilstuna defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

AFC Eskilstuna scores more

55%

level

23%

Skövde AIK scores more

22%

AFC Eskilstuna at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "AFC Eskilstuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

26'

30'

39'

40'

42'

D. Engelbrektsson← M. Fröjd

49'

Victor Fors

68'

Felix Michel← L. Sabah

69'

O. Lennerskog← L. Mattsson

74'

Felix Michel

83'

I. Shamoun← A. Yakubu

86'

90+2'

90+2'

90+2'

90+1'

90'

G. Wallentin← J. Cooper

Shots

Statistics

AFCSkövde

Overview

8Total Shots6

5Corners7

16Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots6

1On Target4

7Off Target2

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1