ADO Den Haag 3–1 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

ADO Den Haag

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

NAC Breda

12/15/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 19Bingoal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

ADO Den Haag45%

×Draw23%

NAC Breda32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ADO Den HaagExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.45

ADO Den Haag

1.77

NAC Breda

1.45

ADO Den Haag creates 22% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 90 away

2.00

creates per match

1.62

1.28

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

ADO Den Haag

2.00

NAC Breda

1.62

allows per match

ADO Den Haag

1.28

NAC Breda

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par

NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw

68%

ADO Den Haag or NAC Breda

77%

Draw or NAC Breda

55%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+

24%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals

83%

ADO Den Haag 2+ goals

53%

ADO Den Haag 3+ goals

26%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

77%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

42%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)

59%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 2.00 + NAC Breda defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

NAC Breda attack 1.62 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more

45%

level

23%

NAC Breda scores more

32%

ADO Den Haag at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff