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ADO Den Haag vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2018

ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
5/14/2022EredivisieEredivisie · Relegation RoundCars Jeans Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

ADO Den Haag48%
×Draw23%
NAC Breda29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ADO Den Haag
1.75
NAC Breda
1.31

ADO Den Haag creates 34% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 57 away

creates per match

ADO Den Haag
1.32
NAC Breda
0.93

allows per match

ADO Den Haag
1.70
NAC Breda
2.18

finishing

ADO Den Haag+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ADO Den Haag ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

ADO Den Haag or draw
71%
ADO Den Haag or NAC Breda
77%
Draw or NAC Breda
52%

Winning margin

ADO Den Haag wins by 2+
26%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

ADO Den Haag 1+ goals
83%
ADO Den Haag 2+ goals
52%
ADO Den Haag 3+ goals
25%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
73%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
38%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

ADO Den Haag (draw refunded)
62%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ADO Den Haag at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.70 · 56 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ADO Den Haag attack 1.32 + NAC Breda defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.75

NAC Breda attack 0.93 + ADO Den Haag defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

ADO Den Haag scores more
48%
level
23%
NAC Breda scores more
29%

ADO Den Haag at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "ADO Den Haag will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: ADO Den Haag 2–1 NAC Breda

ADO Den Haag beat NAC Breda 2-1 in Eredivisie on May 14, 2022.

The match was played at Cars Jeans Stadion in 's-gravenhage.