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Admira Dornbirn vs Dornbirner SV — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Admira Dornbirn
Admira Dornbirn
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
5/17/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 22Sportplatz Admira Dornbirn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Admira Dornbirn48%
×Draw20%
Dornbirner SV32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Admira Dornbirn
2.31
Dornbirner SV
1.85

Admira Dornbirn creates 25% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 25 away

creates per match

Admira Dornbirn
3.11
Dornbirner SV
1.96

allows per match

Admira Dornbirn
1.74
Dornbirner SV
1.52

finishing

Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Dornbirn ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Admira Dornbirn or draw
68%
Admira Dornbirn or Dornbirner SV
80%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
52%

Winning margin

Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+
29%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals
90%
Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals
67%
Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals
40%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
84%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
55%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)
61%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Dornbirn at home — creates 3.11, concedes 1.74 · 54 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Dornbirn attack 3.11 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.31

Dornbirner SV attack 1.96 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Admira Dornbirn scores more
48%
level
20%
Dornbirner SV scores more
32%

Admira Dornbirn at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Admira Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Admira Dornbirn vs Dornbirner SV

Admira Dornbirn and Dornbirner SV drew 2-2 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Admira Dornbirn in Dornbirn.