Admira Dornbirn 0–1 Dornbirner SV: Result & Stats

Admira Dornbirn

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Dornbirner SV

J. Schelling 77'

10/22/2022

Regionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 16Sportplatz Admira Dornbirn

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Admira Dornbirn44%

×Draw22%

Dornbirner SV34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Admira DornbirnExpected goals in this matchDornbirner SV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.93

1.69

Admira Dornbirn

1.93

Dornbirner SV

1.69

Admira Dornbirn creates 14% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 51 away

1.62

creates per match

1.57

1.81

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Admira Dornbirn

1.62

Dornbirner SV

1.57

allows per match

Admira Dornbirn

1.81

Dornbirner SV

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Admira Dornbirn ↓

Dornbirner SV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Admira Dornbirn or draw

66%

Admira Dornbirn or Dornbirner SV

78%

Draw or Dornbirner SV

56%

Winning margin

Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+

24%

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals

85%

Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals

57%

Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals

30%

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals

82%

Dornbirner SV 2+ goals

50%

Dornbirner SV 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)

56%

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Admira Dornbirn at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Admira Dornbirn attack 1.62 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.93

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Admira Dornbirn scores more

44%

level

22%

Dornbirner SV scores more

34%

Admira Dornbirn at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Admira Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

A. Huber

25'

L. Tsohataridis

46'

N. Schöpf← F. Wagner

61'

J. Bokanovic← A. Asani

62'

E. Thurnher← M. Brunold

74'

F. Kalkan← M. Milosavljević

74'

J. Schelling← D. Nachbaur

75'

E. Imre← M. Lampert

77'

J. Schelling

80'

Lucho← M. Wehinger

88'

D. Kutzer← D. Holzknecht

90+4'

C. Nagel

Admira

Dornbirner

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Klocker

62'▲E. Thurnher←▼M. Brunold

75'▲E. Imre←▼M. Lampert

80'▲Lucho←▼M. Wehinger

Admira Dornbirn substitutes

ThurnherImreLuchoBundschuhGunzSuleiman

Manager: E. Regtop

46'▲N. Schöpf←▼F. Wagner

61'▲J. Bokanovic←▼A. Asani

74'▲F. Kalkan←▼M. Milosavljević

74'▲J. Schelling←▼D. Nachbaur

88'▲D. Kutzer←▼D. Holzknecht

Dornbirner SV substitutes

SchöpfBokanovicKalkanSchellingKutzerNadrai

Match Recap: Admira Dornbirn vs Dornbirner SV

Dornbirner SV beat Admira Dornbirn 1-0 in Regionalliga - West on October 22, 2022.

Goals: J. Schelling (77').

The match was played at Sportplatz Admira Dornbirn in Dornbirn.

Admira Dornbirn vs Dornbirner SV — Regionalliga - West 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Admira Dornbirn vs Dornbirner SV