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Adelaide Victory vs Adelaide Blue Eagles — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
FT
1 – 1
Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
7/15/2023South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 20Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adelaide Victory37%
×Draw24%
Adelaide Blue Eagles39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Victory
1.51
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 53 away

creates per match

Adelaide Victory
1.44
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.89

allows per match

Adelaide Victory
1.22
Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.58

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par
Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

Adelaide Blue Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw
61%
Adelaide Victory or Adelaide Blue Eagles
76%
Draw or Adelaide Blue Eagles
63%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
18%
Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
78%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
44%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
19%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
79%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
46%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
49%
Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.58 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.44 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.51

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 1.89 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more
37%
level
24%
Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
39%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Victory vs Adelaide Blue Eagles

Adelaide Victory and Adelaide Blue Eagles drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on July 15, 2023.

The match was played at Rushworth Reserve in Adelaide.