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Adelaide Blue Eagles vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2026

Adelaide Blue Eagles
Adelaide Blue Eagles
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
C. D'Argenio 40'
H. Kojima 82'
3/28/2026South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Adelaide Blue Eagles54%
×Draw22%
Adelaide Victory24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.99
Adelaide Victory
1.25

Adelaide Blue Eagles creates 59% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 52 away

creates per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
2.20
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

Adelaide Blue Eagles
1.27
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

Adelaide Blue Eagles+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Blue Eagles ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Adelaide Blue Eagles or draw
76%
Adelaide Blue Eagles or Adelaide Victory
78%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
46%

Winning margin

Adelaide Blue Eagles wins by 2+
32%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1+ goals
86%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 2+ goals
59%
Adelaide Blue Eagles 3+ goals
32%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
71%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
36%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Blue Eagles (draw refunded)
70%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Blue Eagles at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Blue Eagles attack 2.20 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.99

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + Adelaide Blue Eagles defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Adelaide Blue Eagles scores more
54%
level
22%
Adelaide Victory scores more
24%

Adelaide Blue Eagles at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Adelaide Blue Eagles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
C. D'Argenio
82'
H. Kojima

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Adelaide Blue Eagles 1 – 1 Adelaide Victory

Adelaide Blue Eagles and Adelaide Victory drew 1-1 in South Australia State League 1 on March 28, 2026.

Goals: C. D'Argenio (40'), H. Kojima (82').