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Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Adelaide City
Adelaide City
4/11/2025South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 6Ellis Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Adelaide Comets42%
×Draw25%
Adelaide City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Comets
1.54
Adelaide City
1.36

Adelaide Comets creates 13% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 90 away

creates per match

Adelaide Comets
1.76
Adelaide City
1.59

allows per match

Adelaide Comets
1.14
Adelaide City
1.33

finishing

Adelaide Comets+0.00on par
Adelaide City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Comets ↓

Adelaide City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Adelaide Comets or draw
66%
Adelaide Comets or Adelaide City
75%
Draw or Adelaide City
58%

Winning margin

Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
21%
Adelaide City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
79%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
45%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
20%
Adelaide City 1+ goals
74%
Adelaide City 2+ goals
39%
Adelaide City 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
55%
Adelaide City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Comets at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.14 · 88 matches

Adelaide City away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Comets attack 1.76 + Adelaide City defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Adelaide City attack 1.59 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adelaide Comets scores more
42%
level
25%
Adelaide City scores more
34%

Adelaide Comets at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Adelaide Comets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Comets vs Adelaide City

Adelaide City beat Adelaide Comets 3-0 in South Australia NPL on April 11, 2025.

The match was played at Ellis Park in Adelaide.