Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide City vs Adelaide Comets — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide City
Adelaide City
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Adelaide Comets
Adelaide Comets
3/28/2026South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 5Adelaide City Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Adelaide City48%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Comets29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide City
1.77
Adelaide Comets
1.33

Adelaide City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 88 away

creates per match

Adelaide City
1.98
Adelaide Comets
1.59

allows per match

Adelaide City
1.08
Adelaide Comets
1.55

finishing

Adelaide City+0.00on par
Adelaide Comets+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide City ↓

Adelaide Comets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Adelaide City or draw
71%
Adelaide City or Adelaide Comets
77%
Draw or Adelaide Comets
52%

Winning margin

Adelaide City wins by 2+
26%
Adelaide Comets wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Adelaide City 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide City 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide City 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide Comets 1+ goals
74%
Adelaide Comets 2+ goals
38%
Adelaide Comets 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Adelaide City (draw refunded)
62%
Adelaide Comets (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide City at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.08 · 89 matches

Adelaide Comets away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.55 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide City attack 1.98 + Adelaide Comets defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adelaide Comets attack 1.59 + Adelaide City defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Adelaide City scores more
48%
level
23%
Adelaide Comets scores more
29%

Adelaide City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adelaide City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia NPL: Adelaide City 4–1 Adelaide Comets

Adelaide City beat Adelaide Comets 4-1 in South Australia NPL on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Adelaide City Park.