Adanaspor 1–2 Fatih Karagümrük: Result & Stats

Adanaspor

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fatih Karagümrük

A. Ivan 71'

M. Doh 77'

P. Djilobodji 38'

3/9/2025

1. Lig · Round 29Yeni Adana Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Adanaspor31%

×Draw26%

Fatih Karagümrük42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AdanasporExpected goals in this matchFatih Karagümrük

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.41

Adanaspor

1.17

Fatih Karagümrük

1.41

Fatih Karagümrük creates 21% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 37 away

1.25

creates per match

1.35

1.47

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Adanaspor

1.25

Fatih Karagümrük

1.35

allows per match

Adanaspor

1.47

Fatih Karagümrük

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par

Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw

58%

Adanaspor or Fatih Karagümrük

74%

Draw or Fatih Karagümrük

69%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+

13%

Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals

69%

Adanaspor 2+ goals

33%

Adanaspor 3+ goals

11%

Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals

76%

Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals

41%

Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)

42%

Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adanaspor scores more

31%

level

26%

Fatih Karagümrük scores more

42%

Fatih Karagümrük at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. Djilobodji

Fatih Karagümrük · D

7.9

Match Events

37'

Endri Çekiçi

38'

P. Djilobodji↳ Wesley

45+2'

Elias Durmaz

67'

A. Ivan← S. Çikalleshi

71'

Ç. Kurukalıp← E. Tintiş

71'

A. Ivan↳ M. Cihan

77'

M. Doh

80'

Çağtay Kurukalıp

82'

M. Altunbaş← E. Çekiçi

83'

O. Çınar← Candeias

83'

N. Dovedan← João Camacho

83'

87'

90+12'

90+5'

90+11'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AdanasporFatih

Overview

55%Possession45%

13Total Shots7

6Corners3

11Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots7

5On Target5

4Off Target1

4Blocked1

5Inside Box6

8Outside Box1

Passing

55%Possession45%

411Total Passes344

289Accurate Passes222

70%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides1