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Adanaspor vs Fatih Karagümrük — 1. Lig 2018

Adanaspor
Adanaspor
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fatih Karagümrük
Fatih Karagümrük
12/27/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 175 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Adanaspor31%
×Draw26%
Fatih Karagümrük42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adanaspor
1.17
Fatih Karagümrük
1.41

Fatih Karagümrük creates 21% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 37 away

creates per match

Adanaspor
1.25
Fatih Karagümrük
1.35

allows per match

Adanaspor
1.47
Fatih Karagümrük
1.08

finishing

Adanaspor+0.00on par
Fatih Karagümrük+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adanaspor ↓

Fatih Karagümrük →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Adanaspor or draw
58%
Adanaspor or Fatih Karagümrük
74%
Draw or Fatih Karagümrük
69%

Winning margin

Adanaspor wins by 2+
13%
Fatih Karagümrük wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Adanaspor 1+ goals
69%
Adanaspor 2+ goals
33%
Adanaspor 3+ goals
11%
Fatih Karagümrük 1+ goals
76%
Fatih Karagümrük 2+ goals
41%
Fatih Karagümrük 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Adanaspor (draw refunded)
42%
Fatih Karagümrük (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adanaspor at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.47 · 117 matches

Fatih Karagümrük away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adanaspor attack 1.25 + Fatih Karagümrük defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Fatih Karagümrük attack 1.35 + Adanaspor defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Adanaspor scores more
31%
level
26%
Fatih Karagümrük scores more
42%

Fatih Karagümrük at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fatih Karagümrük will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Adanaspor 2–0 Fatih Karagümrük

Adanaspor beat Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 in 1. Lig on December 27, 2019.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.