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AD Parla vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

AD Parla
AD Parla
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
El Álamo
El Álamo
11/17/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 13Estadio Los Prados

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

AD Parla45%
×Draw26%
El Álamo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AD Parla
1.46
El Álamo
1.10

AD Parla creates 33% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 47 away

creates per match

AD Parla
1.08
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

AD Parla
1.35
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

AD Parla+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Parla ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AD Parla or draw
71%
AD Parla or El Álamo
74%
Draw or El Álamo
55%

Winning margin

AD Parla wins by 2+
22%
El Álamo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AD Parla 1+ goals
77%
AD Parla 2+ goals
43%
AD Parla 3+ goals
18%
El Álamo 1+ goals
67%
El Álamo 2+ goals
30%
El Álamo 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AD Parla (draw refunded)
61%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Parla at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.35 · 98 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Parla attack 1.08 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.46

El Álamo attack 0.85 + AD Parla defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AD Parla scores more
45%
level
26%
El Álamo scores more
29%

AD Parla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AD Parla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AD Parla 2 – 3 El Álamo

El Álamo beat AD Parla 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Los Prados in Parla.