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Accrington ST vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
14:00
Newport County
Newport County
9/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 7The Wham Stadium
Big match
49%
Accrington ST
model favours
49%26%26%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Accrington ST49%
×Draw26%
Newport County26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.53
Newport County
1.03

Accrington ST creates 49% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.93
Newport County
1.11

allows per match

Accrington ST
0.95
Newport County
2.12

finishing

Accrington ST+0.57scores more
Newport County-0.29scores less

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
74%
Accrington ST or Newport County
74%
Draw or Newport County
51%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
25%
Newport County wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
78%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
45%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
20%
Newport County 1+ goals
64%
Newport County 2+ goals
28%
Newport County 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
66%
Newport County (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.95 · 8 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.12 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.93 + Newport County defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.53

Newport County attack 1.11 + Accrington ST defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Accrington ST scores more
49%
level
26%
Newport County scores more
26%

Accrington ST at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 3.7 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Accrington ST
Defensively solid
Newport County
Balanced
47%Possession49%
62%Pass accuracy67%
11.4Shots11.6
0.88xGBiggest gap1.16
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STNewport County

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Newport County
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 50%
4–10–15–01–33–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
County
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Newport County (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Newport County. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Newport County at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.