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Accrington ST vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
3/18/2023League OneLeague One · Round 37Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Accrington ST39%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 109 home / 95 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.46
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
65%
Accrington ST or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
61%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
18%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
76%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
42%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
17%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
74%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
39%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
52%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.46 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.43

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Accrington ST defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Accrington ST scores more
39%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
35%

Accrington ST at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Milton Keynes Dons

Milton Keynes Dons beat Accrington ST 1-0 in League One on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.