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Accrington ST vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
Preview
14:00
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
5/1/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 45The Wham Stadium
Big match
37%
Accrington ST
model favours
37%27%36%

Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Accrington ST37%
×Draw27%
Fleetwood Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.24
Fleetwood Town
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.94
Fleetwood Town
1.15

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.27
Fleetwood Town
1.54

finishing

Accrington ST+0.24scores more
Fleetwood Town-0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
64%
Accrington ST or Fleetwood Town
73%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
16%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
71%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
35%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
13%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
70%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
34%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
51%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.24

Fleetwood Town attack 1.15 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more
37%
level
27%
Fleetwood Town scores more
36%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Accrington ST
Balanced
Fleetwood Town
Balanced
47%Possession48%
62%Pass accuracy67%
11.4Shots12.0
0.91xGBiggest gap1.32
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Accrington STFleetwood Town

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
Accrington ST
2
Draws
5
Fleetwood Town
Avg goals: 3.5BTTS: 80%
1–21–21–41–12–5

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
ST
WDLDD
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Accrington ST face Fleetwood Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Accrington ST hosting Fleetwood Town. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Accrington ST host Fleetwood Town at The Wham Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.