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Accrington ST vs Doncaster — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Doncaster
Doncaster
10/2/2018League OneLeague One · Round 11The Crown Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Accrington ST43%
×Draw25%
Doncaster32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.54
Doncaster
1.28

Accrington ST creates 20% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 108 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.46
Doncaster
1.13

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.43
Doncaster
1.61

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Doncaster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
68%
Accrington ST or Doncaster
75%
Draw or Doncaster
57%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
22%
Doncaster wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
79%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
45%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
20%
Doncaster 1+ goals
72%
Doncaster 2+ goals
37%
Doncaster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
58%
Doncaster (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.43 · 109 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.61 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.46 + Doncaster defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.54

Doncaster attack 1.13 + Accrington ST defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Accrington ST scores more
43%
level
25%
Doncaster scores more
32%

Accrington ST at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League One: Accrington ST 1–0 Doncaster

Accrington ST beat Doncaster 1-0 in League One on October 2, 2018.

The match was played at The Crown Ground in Accrington.