Accrington ST 4–4 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

4 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Cheltenham

E. Chapman 87' (OG)

T. Leigh 48', 45+1'

S. McConville 45+5'

W. Boyle 90+6', 66'

C. Wright 90'

A. May 33'

4/2/2022

League One · Round 41Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Accrington ST44%

×Draw25%

Cheltenham30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.23

Accrington ST

1.54

Cheltenham

1.23

Accrington ST creates 25% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 69 away

1.42

creates per match

1.01

1.44

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Cheltenham

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

70%

Accrington ST or Cheltenham

75%

Draw or Cheltenham

56%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

22%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

79%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

45%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

20%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

71%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

35%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

59%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.67 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Cheltenham defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Accrington ST scores more

44%

level

25%

Cheltenham scores more

30%

Accrington ST at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

T. Leigh

Accrington ST · M

8.2

Match Events

17'

J. O'Sullivan← H. Pell

33'

A. May

45+1'

T. Leigh

45+5'

S. McConville

46'

L. Sercombe← A. Ramsey

48'

T. Leigh↳ J. O'Sullivan

66'

W. Boyle

73'

J. Pritchard← T. Leigh

74'

75'

79'

80'

87'

E. ChapmanOwn goal

90+1'

Ross Sykes

90+1'

Ross Sykes

90+7'

William Boyle

90'

C. Wright↳ A. May

90+6'

W. Boyle↳ L. Sercombe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonCheltenham

Overview

50%Possession50%

21Total Shots7

6Corners2

13Fouls10

Shots

21Total Shots7

8On Target6

9Off Target1

4Blocked0

9Inside Box7

12Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

342Total Passes354

204Accurate Passes206

60%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls10

3Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

3Offsides4