Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Accrington ST vs Charlton — League One 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Charlton
Charlton
T. Leigh 32'
R. Longelo-Mbule 28'
J. Stockley 18' (pen)
3/12/2022League OneLeague One · Round 38Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST37%
×Draw26%
Charlton37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.33
Charlton
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 143 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
1.42
Charlton
1.22

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.44
Charlton
1.24

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Charlton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
63%
Accrington ST or Charlton
74%
Draw or Charlton
63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
17%
Charlton wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
74%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
38%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
15%
Charlton 1+ goals
74%
Charlton 2+ goals
38%
Charlton 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
50%
Charlton (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Charlton attack 1.22 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more
37%
level
26%
Charlton scores more
37%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5
R. SykesAccrington STAccrington ST · D
7.6

Match Events

18'
J. StockleyPenalty
22'
Liam Coyle
28'
R. Longelo-Mbule
32'
T. Leigh↳ C. Bishop
34'
E. Hamilton← L. Coyle
38'
Korede Adedoyin
38'
Harry Pell
38'
George Dobson
40'
Sean Clare
58'
C. Washington← J. Pearce
63'
Tommy Leigh
67'
S. Conneely← K. Adedoyin
71'
D. Jaiyesimi← B. Purrington
79'
Y. Amankwah← R. Longelo-Mbule
86'
M. Burstow← C. Gunter
90'
Conor Washington

Possession

44%Accrington

Shots

17Accrington

Pass accuracy

48%Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonCharlton
Overview
44%Possession56%
17Total Shots5
2Corners6
16Fouls19
Shots
17Total Shots5
6On Target3
8Off Target1
3Blocked1
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box0
Passing
44%Possession56%
271Total Passes340
177Accurate Passes240
65%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
16Fouls19
3Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Charlton

Accrington ST beat Charlton 2-1 in League One on March 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Stockley (18' pen), R. Longelo-Mbule (28'), T. Leigh (32').

Charlton controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 17.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.