Accrington ST 1–1 Charlton: Result & Stats

Accrington ST

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Charlton

J. Pritchard 81'

C. Aneke 90+5'

5/1/2021

League One · Round 45Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Accrington ST37%

×Draw26%

Charlton37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Accrington STExpected goals in this matchCharlton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

Accrington ST

1.33

Charlton

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 107 home / 143 away

1.42

creates per match

1.22

1.44

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Accrington ST

1.42

Charlton

1.22

allows per match

Accrington ST

1.44

Charlton

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par

Charlton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Charlton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw

63%

Accrington ST or Charlton

74%

Draw or Charlton

63%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+

17%

Charlton wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals

74%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

38%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

15%

Charlton 1+ goals

74%

Charlton 2+ goals

38%

Charlton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

50%

Charlton (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.44 · 107 matches

Charlton away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.24 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 1.42 + Charlton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Charlton attack 1.22 + Accrington ST defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Accrington ST scores more

37%

level

26%

Charlton scores more

37%

Accrington ST at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Accrington ST will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Aneke

Charlton · F

7.7

Match Events

58'

C. Aneke← C. Washington

63'

Jon Russell

65'

J. Pritchard← J. Russell

70'

Jake Forster-Caskey

73'

Sean McConville

74'

L. Millar← J. Pearce

81'

J. Pritchard↳ D. Morgan

89'

Ryan Inniss

90'

Harvey Rodgers

90+2'

A. Shinnie← J. Forster-Caskey

90+1'

A. Morgan← D. Pratley

90+5'

C. Aneke↳ A. Morgan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AccringtonCharlton

Overview

58%Possession42%

18Total Shots8

8Corners3

11Fouls21

Shots

18Total Shots8

3On Target3

6Off Target4

9Blocked1

11Inside Box5

7Outside Box3

Passing

58%Possession42%

347Total Passes251

196Accurate Passes120

56%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls21

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides6