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Accrington ST vs Barnsley — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Barnsley
Barnsley
7/20/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Wham Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Accrington ST19%
×Draw30%
Barnsley51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
0.65
Barnsley
1.27

Barnsley creates 95% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.63
Barnsley
1.67

allows per match

Accrington ST
0.88
Barnsley
0.67

finishing

Accrington ST+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–119%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
49%
Accrington ST or Barnsley
70%
Draw or Barnsley
81%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
5%
Barnsley wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
48%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
14%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
3%
Barnsley 1+ goals
72%
Barnsley 2+ goals
36%
Barnsley 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
27%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.63, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.63 + Barnsley defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Barnsley attack 1.67 + Accrington ST defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Accrington ST scores more
19%
level
30%
Barnsley scores more
51%

Barnsley at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Barnsley

Barnsley beat Accrington ST 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 20, 2024.

The match was played at Wham Stadium in Accrington, Lancashire.